As Herschel Walker (a man so completely unfit for *any* elected office he makes Trump look like Benjamin Franklin) aptly demonstrates, the Republicans could nominate literally any person, place, or thing and their advantage is so unfairly stacked through gerrymandering, disenfranchisement, and propaganda there is almost no chance the election isn’t within 5 points.
Which is insane. A lot of the Republican candidates are firmly in the 10-20% chance in a non-fucked up world but it’s going to be close and there’s a real chance any (or all) of them could win.