Harris-Walz / Dems

Pocket

jumbled pile of person
Citizen
That's the kind of goofy mistake you see AI make.
Thanks for reminding me that when Trump dies, they'll be able to replace him with a robot and even with our comparatively primitive technology, no one will be able to tell the difference.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
I never made the connection. He says they are sending people from mental asylums, but I never considered that he might have thought that was what asylum was....
 

Ungnome

Grand Empress of the Empire of One Square Foot.
Citizen
I didn't make that connection either, but now that it's been said...
 

Rhinox

too old for this
Citizen
this feels like a very good example of "STOP 'HELPING'...."

I disagree. The more people talk about just how damaging Trump is to the nation and the institution, the better. No, these are not individuals I agree with on policy (I mean, George Will? That asshat has been a dick since the 80s) but if their voices are what it takes to demonstrate Trump's unique danger to the republic, then fine.

I don't know what it would take to reach the average Trump voter, but for those not caught up in the cult, maybe there is still time to reach them. To do that, we need republican voices because thats who they'll listen to.
Recently, a former AM radio right wing DJ here in Kansas threw their support behind Harris/Walz. There was a lot of pushback from his former listeners who are all trapped in that soundchamber. But, because of who he was, he actually appeared to be reaching some of them. He made coherent arguments and presented things in a manner they were able to understand.
 

Teufel

Active member
Citizen
Plus, polling regularly shows a majority of Americans look back on Reagan fondly. That said, I doubt a letter signed by the Reagan White House chief photographer is going to move the needle. And if invoking Reagan could stop Trump it would've worked in the 2016 primaries of the party that considered Reagan its patron saint. Anyone you could peel off is long since gone.

The real "stop helping" one to me seemed like Dick Cheney. A deeply unpopular former VP with all the Bush admin and Iraq War baggage openly endorsing Harris. If Trump were actually rich he should be blaring that endorsement in deeply blue states to try and drive down turnout and Harris' popular vote margin.
 

Rhinox

too old for this
Citizen
Plus, polling regularly shows a majority of Americans look back on Reagan fondly. That said, I doubt a letter signed by the Reagan White House chief photographer is going to move the needle. And if invoking Reagan could stop Trump it would've worked in the 2016 primaries of the party that considered Reagan its patron saint. Anyone you could peel off is long since gone.

The real "stop helping" one to me seemed like Dick Cheney. A deeply unpopular former VP with all the Bush admin and Iraq War baggage openly endorsing Harris. If Trump were actually rich he should be blaring that endorsement in deeply blue states to try and drive down turnout and Harris' popular vote margin.
But neither Trump nor his campaign are that smart. if they were, Trump would be wearing a gag every time he went out.
No, they'll continue to thumb their noses at any potential because they're too busy airing their grievance politics.
 

Pocket

jumbled pile of person
Citizen
Zuchowski is up for reelection this year, and Portage County's local paper is saying demand for campaign signs for his opponent have spiked so high that they've run out.

If he weren't a small-town sheriff, I'd say this backfired spectacularly. But let's face it, small American towns never elect Democrats as sheriff.

Oh, and of course since it's Ohio and they're currently run by Republicans, he's not going to face any legal repercussions either.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen

Their models give Harris at least a slight edge in all 7 toss-up states. Squeakers in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Significant edge in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which is a win.
 

Paladin

Well-known member
Citizen
and how's that different from the projections they had for Hillary in 2016?

up to election night she had a 71% chance in most polls...
 

wonko the sane?

You may test that assumption at your convinience.
Citizen
You're absolutely right: we shouldn't trust the polls. I guess we just need to mobilize as much of the population as humanly possible then vote blue all the way down the ticket.

Dude, polls will talk; but the job ain't done till november 6th, when the voting is over. I don't care who you listen to, or how you vote, so long as you vote. So long as you get your friends and family to vote. So long as you get your neighbours and work colleagues to vote.

And don't forget; they keep calling republicans to win some down ballot races; and they've been losing them since 2016.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
and how's that different from the projections they had for Hillary in 2016?

up to election night she had a 71% chance in most polls...
I wasn't paying much attention that year because it seemed a foregone conclusion that Hillary was winning. I don't know what this group said. I have watched since then and they've been very accurate. For several months leading up to 2020, they said Biden was winning while the media fretted and people I knew fretted. He won the states they'd been saying he'd win for a couple months.

What they do is better than most. Most polling, because it is easy I guess, just measures popular vote.

On the last midterm, my dad was telling me that there would be a big red wave in the House and they were also going to take the Senate. He said "the polls" said so, but 538 was telling me that the Democrats would get both Georgia Senate seats and that the red "wave" would be pretty small and tight.

Getting polling right is difficult, but Trump didn't get underestimated in 2020. Pollsters learned from 2016 and adjusted. You have to know how to weigh your data and how to draw proper conclusions. I know one of the things they learned in 2016 was that the way they were carrying out the poll was biased toward Hillary voters being more likely to be polled.

You're absolutely right: we shouldn't trust the polls. I guess we just need to mobilize as much of the population as humanly possible then vote blue all the way down the ticket.

You are saying one minute that Trump doesn't have a ghost of a chance and then another minute saying that you can't trust the polls, get out there and beat the streets.
 
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Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
I found what 538 had in 2016. They got surprised like everyone else that time. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.

And I also just saw that the guy behind 538 left last year and took his model with him. Disney owns it now. So.....
 

DefaultOption

Sourball
Citizen
Disney has owned 538, first via ESPN and then via ABC News, since 2013, so that's nothing new.

And Nate Silver is now working for billionaire Peter Thiel's political betting site Polymarket, so he has a financial interest in skewing the appearance of the state of the race.

 

Pocket

jumbled pile of person
Citizen
The author of that article is also apparently unaware that Silver is no longer running the site he founded...
But veteran conservative consultant Stuart Stevens — a Never Trumper conservative who is supporting Harris — is critical of Silver's forecast, arguing that there is a connection between Silver's FiveThirtyEight and billionaire Trump supporter Peter Thiel.
...so I'd take their capacity to do basic fact-checking with a grain of salt.
 

KidTDragon

Now with hi-res avatar!
Citizen
Kamala is eager to kick Von Shitzenpantz's fat ass in another debate.

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