Harris-Walz / Dems

Pocket

jumbled pile of person
Citizen
I've been saying for as long as I could vote that debates would actually be more civilized if they had a guy standing off to the side with a Gong Show gong to hit whenever the candidates start rambling off topic or talking over each other.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
The middle paragraph is cheeky!

An easy defense for his campaign, though, is that Trump DID fit 2 debates into his schedule.
 

G.B.Blackrock

Well-known member
Citizen
Disney has owned 538, first via ESPN and then via ABC News, since 2013, so that's nothing new.

And Nate Silver is now working for billionaire Peter Thiel's political betting site Polymarket, so he has a financial interest in skewing the appearance of the state of the race.

I daresay his financial interest evaporates the second his method is determined to be less reliable than his former reputation for it.
 

Teufel

Active member
Citizen
Nate Silver has publicly said he's voting Kamala and his model says it's currently a tight race with Kamala having a slight edge (with a small but real risk Trump squeaks by in the Electoral College if she doesn't broaden her lead.) There's definitely a lot of online animosity towards him but I'm still confused what the Blue Anon conspiracy theory about Nate Silver is actually supposed to be because he's in line with plenty of other analysis and forecasts.

Also Peter Thiel doesn't own Polymarket, his VC fund made an investment but so did several others.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen

This drives me nuts. It is the lead story at cnn.com right now. CNN did a poll and they are announcing it and their summary is "No Clear Leader in the Race". This is the reason you will find me at 270towin or Project538. There is a full page spread of demographics and influential issues and I read a while and then skimmed and then did Ctrl-F to see if "electoral" or "state" would appear in the article and they do not appear anywhere.

There is no prize for winning the race that they are measuring because no such race exists. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are not competing for the popular vote. There are seven states. Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with an available 93 Electors. Trump is trying to get majorities in enough of those states to find 50 Electors and Kamala is trying to find 45. That's the contest.
 

wonko the sane?

You may test that assumption at your convinience.
Citizen
There actually IS a race: but it's an ecomonic one. The corporate media wants trump to win, because a trump win will mean deregulation and tax breaks. And boy oh boy do the media owners want that deregulation and tax breaks.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
When you do state by state polling, right now pretty smart money is on Kamala getting Michigan, Pennslvania, and Wisconsin and that is game, set, match. She is also favored in Nevada. She could win all of them. Trump is favored in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, but not as favored as Kamala is in those northern states and if he just gets the states were he is favored it won't be enough.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
There actually IS a race: but it's an ecomonic one. The corporate media wants trump to win, because a trump win will mean deregulation and tax breaks. And boy oh boy do the media owners want that deregulation and tax breaks.
Did he deregulate them and give them tax breaks before and have Biden snatch that away?
 

wonko the sane?

You may test that assumption at your convinience.
Citizen
That's literally all republicans do: they role back regulations for the environment, workers rights, oversight. Look at the divides between red and blue states on earnings, life span, overall health, education, unemployment. Trump basically only gave tax breaks to the richest of the rich. Not only did he do that, but he made them basically perpetual: with no stated end date or life span attached to them. It was an across the board tax cut: but if you earned less than 400K, the cut expired this year. If you earned more: you're still enjoying them.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen
If you want to keep saying that, I need actual detail. How did news companies benefit from tax cuts and deregulation when Trump was President and which ones have been undone by Biden?

I think the issue is probably a little simpler. I think the news might do what they could to make it look tighter no matter who was ahead. Because it keeps us watching. The benefit is right now.
 

Pocket

jumbled pile of person
Citizen
And anyway, is this really helping Trump? I'd argue that making it look like he's doomed would help him more, by discouraging people from going out of their way to vote against him. You know, like exactly what happened in 2016.
 

Axaday

Well-known member
Citizen


that'll get less then a tenth the coverage of some idiot on a golf course.
Her office in Arizona being shot at SHOULD get less than a tenth the coverage of some idiot on a golf course planning and getting reasonably close to killing a former President and current candidate.
 

wonko the sane?

You may test that assumption at your convinience.
Citizen
Nope: they need to call out every instance of obvious political violence. And it needs to be publicly and nationally shamed as intolerable every. single. day.

They won't do that either.
 


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