It is possible for any movie that hasn't shot to get dropped. It is even possible for Batgirl to get filmed and edited and then not released. But USUALLY when there is a director and a lead cast and a release date 2 years away, money is already getting spent on the movie and things are getting scheduled and it is really happening.
What bugs my Spidey sense is that they SAID that they felt quality had suffered from cranking out a movie every year. And now they're announcing two movies a year apart. I'd love to have one every year. I'd even like to have more than that like MCU, but do they now feel like they have enough resources behind the scenes to get all of the work done right on two projects a year apart? I am not for sure what all they mean when they say they were doing too many movies, but I can reconcile what I do know with the general statement. Solo didn't go over budget because it was too ambitious. The movie that Opie made was good and was not too expensive. It went over-budget because the first director did a LOT of work before the bosses realized he wasn't making the movie they wanted. I don't understand how that could be because they didn't have the ability to realize it sooner, but obviously they didn't. And then I am not sure how much MONEY was wasted on Episode 9 (we can joke that it was all of it, but that isn't my point), but TIME was certainly wasted when again management realized too late that the director was not making the movie they wanted. My trust was already eroded by this point, but I think Abrams is a capable director. My problems with the story on Episode 9 (and 8) were approved by upper management, so I don't take that into account, but I would presume that the upper management did have problems with the movie due to all the lost time. But were both really just Kennedy putting too much trust in a director and not paying attention or were there other factors that prevented it? I don't know.
I think management (for both franchises) acknowledged that there was just TOO MUCH, period. Not just yearly films (multiple in the case of Marvel), but of multiple TV series (animated and live action). The pace necessary to maintain that volume of content was clearly having a detrimental effect on the type and quality of the product.
I think the difference this time around is that Lucasfilm let the preproduction process dictate release, not the other way around. They don’t seem to be rushing these films out the door, and I think that will make a HUGE difference to the quality of the final product and audience expectations. As is, I strongly believe Mandalorian and Grogu started as Mando season 4 and got retooled into a film because…nothing else was even CLOSE to getting made. And it wouldn’t surprise me if they slipped in a couple of Disney+ specials co-filmed with the movie.
Starfighter, seemingly, had a smooth preproduction process, got the director who made the generally well received and VERY successful Deadpool 3, and has an A-List star attached with vested interest (supposedly, Ryan Gosling’s involvement lead to a fast track). They are ready to start filming this fall, which gives them just under two years to film and post-production. Disney isn’t pulling a Rogue Squadron where they stake a date claim with nothing but a name and a director.
We’ll see how back to back films get received, but there hasn’t been a Star Wars theatrical event in 7 years (by the time next May rolls around). Backed by the two biggest breakout characters the brand has seen in 20 years? I figure it has good chances.
Honestly that's more rapid than I prefer, makes it kind of hard to keep up.
Not sure why pacing even matters on the streaming platforms.
Plus, it sounds like the season will be made up of “mini-arcs” to cover a longer periods of time than season 1. Having the “full arcs” available each week, I think, will help the season in pacing.