Michael Bay’s five movies already “poisoned the well” for Transformers as far as audience expectation goes. They’ll look for the three V’s, vulgarity, violence, visuals.
If you stray from that (like Bumblebee) EVEN IF you’re the better movie (like Bumblebee) you’re going to underperform (like Bumblebee) because that’s not what audiences have been conditioned to want from a Transformers movie.
Like I said back when it came out: I think Rise of the Beasts did an excellent job balancing those audience expectations while not indulging to baser elements the “Bay films” frequently gravitated towards. And I think the improved US box office is reflective of that.
Speaking of Box Office…Despite getting chopped down to 322 locations, the per location average is still surprisingly strong. The film could easily mosey along for a couple more weeks, though I think domestic gross is going to land somewhere around $157 million. Worldwide still has yet to see reports from Japan and I’m sure some markets are slow in reporting, but I expect the film to putter out around $440 million.
I’m already seeing some sites calling the film a failure, but I think that analysis lacks context: While the world wide gross will end up less than Bumblebee (around $468 million in 2018), I still don’t feel it “fair” to call this one a failure.
This is the first post-Covid franchise release in a market that is STILL not as robust as it was in 2018/19. While the WW numbers are going to be about $30 million less than BB (itself not even marketed as a Transformers film, which may have been a factor), the US domestic numbers is going to be $30 million better than BB’s result. And that doesn’t factor in the back end from streaming purchase and rentals, the inevitable physical media sales, or the ancillary licensing or toy royalties.
What makes Transformers come off as even LESS a failure is the broader market comparison. This summer has been a KILLING FIELD for major film releases. In terms of the US domestic box office, even films that “made more money” are coming out behind thanks to massive budgets. Fast X crashed to $150 million (though, the HUGE international results may offset that). Elemental, Ruby Gillman, and Indiana Jones join Flash in being certifiable flops and even The Little Mermaid is only on track to break even.
Could Transformers be called a “disappointment”? Probably. Relative to the competition? I think Paramount would rather a Transformers level disappointment compared to Indiana Jones or Flash.
