My mind starts to boggle when I think about this. So much is based on NATO countries staying good. The bad guys are supposed to be outside.
I do think Trump would have a very difficult time with generals, even if he started firing them. In his first term that worked. They would just tell him no and he hated it, but he didn't think he could do anything about it. He has returned with an adapted attitude, but I'm not sure how much is bluster. It seems like someone who really has his ear has told him that control of Panama, Greenland and Canada are CRITICAL to America's future. Not really able to think about complicated things himself, he is just going with whether that person seems right or not. When he is actually sitting in the Pentagon at a table full of generals, they may be able to convince him that he has been listening to a chickenhawk. And it may be that Trump is just playing an unconscionable game of brinksmanship and the initial thoughts about Panama are true of all three: He is just using threats to get economic concessions. Greenland might give him some mineral rights and another base to prevent a really weird and sad conflict. The Canada thing is still mystifying unless he is just trying to demonstrate how big a man he is. From what I can tell, Canada is already letting us operate in the Arctic with no static because despite this rancor and a lot of other stuff, they are our closest ally when it comes to physical security.
If it actually came down to the United States sending in troops and tanks and jets to take over Canada by force and none of the checks at the Pentagon stopped it (and again I think that is probable and insurmountable hurdle), I'd be pretty doubtful about who would help Canada. A threat FROM the biggest NATO nation would be a serious confusion on the mutual aid thing. Note that Germany and Poland and even France have plenty of skin in the game in Ukraine and they help with money and equipment, but none of them have been willing to go to war against Russia. Who wants to go to war against the USA? My best guess is that they all know in that scenario that scary as they are, the US invasion forces are not the real problem. The White House is. They'd be calling for Trump's arrest and they would have well-place d help within the USA. So Donald if you are reading this, don't get bogged down on how illegal and stupid it would all be. Think about how it is your new fast track to impeachment and imprisonment.
