I don't know if it is true or what will happen, but Trump said today that Vietnam was negotiating. If he gets any concession at all, he can announce that that was what he was trying to get. Lift tariff on Vietnam before it even starts (??). That will get others to the table. I realize Vietnam isn't what the stock market is worried about, but a pile of similar countries makes it plausible to a red hat that Trump stood up to the world and showed them the USA is boss. Honestly a lot of countries that size probably are going to cave. What is Madagascar going to do if they can't sell vanilla to the USA? They are going to have to do what he wants. So to some extent it is really going to be true that the tariffs worked as a negotiation tactic. It is thuggy, but it will be effective.
Bigger countries are bristling, but some of them might cave. He doesn't have to have that. There are lots of other weasely openings too. Any country that isn't playing can be said to have solved one of his imaginary problems. If it looks like the House of Representatives is going to stop the Canada tariffs, Trump just needs to say they finally got serious about Fentanyl. A bunch of NATO countries have increased their defense spending. He can lift EU tariffs because of that. Absolutely any country can turn out to have stopped "manipulating currency". If he gets some lucky and some good timing, he can pull up.
If he digs in, I think there is a very good possibility that he blows up his whole deal.
